You can expect things to start feeling warmer again later in February, but with some frustrating ups and downs rather than a clean flip to springlike weather.

Big picture: why it’s so cold now

  • A polar vortex pattern has been sending repeated waves of Arctic air into the central and eastern parts of North America, keeping temperatures well below normal.
  • Meteorologists note this combo of duration and intensity of cold is unusually strong for many regions, which is why it feels like it’s dragging on.

When does it ease up?

  • Long‑range outlooks say the deep, persistent cold should start to relax in early to mid‑February , with some milder periods mixed in.
  • For many places, January is climatologically the coldest month, so February is already a slow climb upward in average highs, even if it doesn’t feel like it yet.

Rough timeline (Northern Hemisphere, mid‑latitudes)

  • Early February: Still chilly in many eastern and central regions; western areas (like western Canada and the western U.S.) may run noticeably warmer than normal.
  • Mid February: Higher chance of brief “thaw” periods or days well above freezing, especially in western and some central areas, though cold snaps can still drop back in.
  • Late February into March: Increasingly frequent mild days; more of that “it’s not warm yet, but at least it’s not brutal” pattern.

Think of it less like a switch and more like a staircase: a few steps up, one step back down, but trending warmer overall.

Why the forecast sounds wishy‑washy

  • Seasonal forecasts show above‑normal odds for warmer‑than‑average temperatures overall this winter , but that doesn’t prevent short, sharp cold blasts.
  • For February 2026 specifically, forecasters describe “sharp swings” rather than steady warmth: one week damp and mild, the next with frost or snow again.

It’s basically a winter that can’t decide if it’s staying or leaving—cold retreats, lunges back, then gets shoved aside by milder air again.

What this means for you day‑to‑day

Even without your exact city, for a typical temperate‑climate location in the Northern Hemisphere right now:

  1. You’re probably past the absolute coldest part of the season.
  1. You’ll likely notice the first “wow, this feels kind of nice” days in February , but they won’t stick at first.
  1. More consistently mild, truly “warm” weather (no heavy coat most days) usually waits until late March or April , depending on latitude and local climate.

So: it will get warm again, and the first hints are likely within the next few weeks—but expect a messy back‑and‑forth before it settles in.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.