Nobody can give an exact date for “when the ice is going to melt,” but scientists can bracket when different kinds of ice are likely to largely disappear if warming continues.

What “the ice” usually means

People asking this usually mean one (or more) of these:

  • Summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean
  • Year‑round Arctic sea ice
  • Mountain glaciers
  • The big ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica), which control long‑term sea‑level rise

Each of these melts on very different timescales.

Arctic sea ice: decades, not centuries

  • Climate-model studies suggest the first “ice‑free” Arctic day in late summer (less than about 1 million square kilometers of sea ice) could occur within a few to a couple of decades, even under different emission scenarios, with some simulations allowing it as soon as the 2030s.
  • Earlier assessments indicated at least some Septembers with under 1 million square kilometers of ice are likely before 2050.
  • Space‑agency monitoring shows the September minimum Arctic sea‑ice extent has been shrinking for decades, with roughly a double‑digit percent decline per decade.

In story terms: we are not waiting for some far‑off sci‑fi date; we are living through the “disappearing summer ice” chapter right now.

Mountain glaciers: centuries, but loss is already locked in

  • Many mountain glaciers worldwide are already retreating quickly and will continue to shrink through this century because of past and current warming.
  • Some smaller regional glaciers are expected to mostly vanish within decades , while larger glacier systems will take longer but are still projected to lose a large fraction of their mass over the next 100–200 years if emissions stay high.

You can think of them like savings accounts that are already being drawn down; the exact “zero balance” date varies valley by valley.

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets: very long, very serious

  • Complete melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is not something this century is expected to see; estimates for a near‑total melt run into many hundreds to thousands of years, even under strong warming.
  • However, they do not need to melt completely to cause big problems: partial melting and ice‑sheet destabilization are enough to raise sea levels by meters over the coming centuries, with noticeable contributions already happening now.

So the “all the ice is gone” scenario is a multi‑millennial story, but the “coastlines are heavily reshaped” part begins much sooner.

Why there’s no single countdown clock

  • Different ice types respond differently to heat, ocean currents, and weather extremes, so there is no single unified date when “the ice will melt.”
  • Projections are expressed as ranges and probabilities, not precise deadlines, because they depend on future emissions and on how sensitive the climate system proves to be.

A useful mental model:

  • Arctic summer sea ice: mainly a this‑century / next‑few‑decades issue.
  • Most glaciers: this century to next few centuries.
  • Big ice sheets: centuries to millennia , with meaningful sea‑level rise unfolding much sooner.

If you let me know what kind of ice (Arctic summer sea ice, glaciers near where you live, Greenland/Antarctica, etc.) you’re most interested in, I can narrow the timelines more.