Australian house prices are not expected to crash in the foreseeable future, including 2026, according to major forecasts from KPMG, AMP, and SQM Research. Instead, persistent housing shortages, strong population growth, and tight supply are driving continued upward pressure, even amid rate hike talks and affordability strains. Recent data as of March 2026 shows most capital cities tipped for modest growth, though Sydney and Melbourne face potential slowdowns.

Current Forecasts

Major analysts have updated their outlooks for 2026, painting a picture far from a crash:

City| House Price Growth Prediction (2026)| Key Factors| Source
---|---|---|---
Perth| 11-13%+ (leading performer)| Affordability, supply shortages| 13
Brisbane| ~11% (possibly 20% over 2 years)| Population boom, demand surge| 37
Darwin| 10.5% (houses), 13.4% (units)| Lowest median prices, upward trend| 17
Adelaide| 6-7%| Steady growth, affordability limits| 3
Melbourne| 0-3% or <3% (underperformer)| Downturn risks in H1 2026| 59
Sydney| 0-3% or 5.3% (moderate)| Stretched affordability| 59
National| 0-10% (base case revised down)| Shortage vs. inflation/rates| 5

KPMG's January 2026 report highlights a 7.7% national rise , fueled by demand at the affordable end colliding with shortages. SQM Research's March update tempers this to 0-3% under higher inflation (4.4-5%) and cash rates at 4.35%, but still no crash.

Why No Crash?

  • Supply Crunch : Australia's housing shortage persists, with limited new builds despite population pressures.
  • Economic Resilience : Low unemployment, tight labor markets, and migration keep demand high.
  • Cycle Context : Experts reference the 18.6-year property cycle, placing us in a "winner's curse" phase (2024-2026) of speculation without GFC-level drops.
  • Historical Precedent : Past fears (e.g., 2022, GFC) didn't lead to crashes absent massive unemployment or rate spikes.

That said, risks like further rate hikes , inflation peaks, or premium segment weakness could soften growth in Sydney/Melbourne. Forums buzz with crash speculation, but data defies it: "Even rate uncertainty won't derail the shortage-driven surge."

Forum & Trending Views

Online chatter (YouTube, forums) amplifies crash fears amid 2025's rate talks, but pros counter with data:

"Brisbane to grow 20% over 2 years... housing shortage still matters most."

Multi-viewpoint:

  1. Bullish (KPMG/AMP) : Shortage + demand = gains everywhere but premium markets.
  1. Cautious (SQM) : Inflation/rates cap national growth at low single digits.
  1. Bearish Minority : 10-20% drops possible if affordability breaks (older views).

Looking Ahead

By late 2026, expect city-specific trends: Perth/Brisbane boom, Sydney/Melbourne plateau. No uniform crash—focus on affordability plays. Monitor RBA rates and builds for shifts.

TL;DR : No crash imminent; prices likely rise modestly in 2026 (0-11% by city), driven by shortages despite headwinds.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.