Hard drive prices in China look more likely to stay high through 2026 than to drop soon, because supply is tight and demand from AI/data-center buyers is still strong. Recent reporting suggests the upward trend may continue for at least the rest of this year, with some analysts warning meaningful relief may not come until 2027 or later.

What’s driving it

  • HDD contract prices have already been rising, with one report citing about a 4% sequential increase after late-2025 negotiations.
  • Storage demand is being pulled up by AI infrastructure and cloud buyers, which keeps pressure on both HDDs and related memory products.
  • A separate report said low supply is keeping consumer storage prices elevated, and that higher prices could last at least until the end of the year.

China-specific angle

  • Reports tied to China’s PC market say demand there is helping tighten supply further, which can push prices up locally as well.
  • So for China, the most realistic expectation is not a quick crash, but a slow easing only if supply expands and demand cools.

Simple timing view

Period| Likely price direction
---|---
Now to end of 2026| Mostly high, with possible spikes or small increases 25
Early 2027| Possible stabilization if supply improves 12
2027 or later| Better chance of noticeable relief 12

Practical take

If you need a drive soon, waiting for a big drop may not pay off. If the purchase is flexible, watching for promotions or excess inventory during major sales periods is the safer bet than assuming prices will normalize quickly.