No one can predict exactly when the next Carrington Event will occur. The original 1859 solar storm, triggered by a massive coronal mass ejection (CME), disrupted telegraph systems worldwide and painted auroras visible as far south as the Caribbean. Scientists estimate such extreme geomagnetic storms happen roughly once every 100-150 years, but timing remains unpredictable due to the sun's chaotic nature.

Current Solar Cycle Risks

Solar Cycle 25 peaked around mid-2025, with heightened activity still possible into 2026. Recent events, like the intense May 2024 geomagnetic storm (Gannon storm) and an X9 flare in October 2024, were powerful but fell short of Carrington-level intensity (Dst index around -850 to -1750 nT). NOAA once pegged a 2-12% chance of a Carrington-scale event this cycle, reflecting increased flare frequency near solar maximum.

Probability Estimates

  • Short-term (next decade): Low, around 1-2% annually, per historical data and models.
  • Next 50 years: Cumulative odds climb to ~64% at 2% yearly rates, though uncertainty drops as time passes without incident.
  • Forum views: Prepper communities on Reddit highlight NOAA's warnings, urging grid hardening amid recent G4/G5 storms.

Experts like those at Popular Science note we're "still heading toward the maximum," with CMEs intensifying as the cycle wanes. A Substack update from early 2026 tied surging flares to auroral currents, evoking 1859 telegraph logs.

Recent Close Calls

The 2024 storms created new Van Allen belts, disrupted satellites, and grounded flights, but spared major grid failures. Imagine 1859's scale today: trillions in damage from transformer overloads, blackouts lasting months, and satellite constellations like Starlink at risk. Preparedness includes NOAA's 1-3 day warnings, yet vulnerabilities persist.

Trending Discussions

Online buzz, from YouTube to Reddit, frames this as a "catastrophic" modern threat. One X post details cascading failures: grids down, internet severed, cars indirectly stalled via fuel pumps. Speculation runs high post-2024 events, but no consensus predicts an imminent repeat.

TL;DR: Unpredictable, but Solar Cycle 25 (peaking 2025) raised odds—monitor space weather for the next big one.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.