The short answer: Staten Island Chuck (Charles G. Hogg) is currently the most accurate “groundhog” forecaster, with about an 85% success rate in recent analyses, putting him well ahead of Punxsutawney Phil and most others.

Who’s the most accurate groundhog?

Several recent rundowns of Groundhog Day records using National Weather Service/NOAA-style data rank groundhogs by how often their “early spring” vs “more winter” call matches March temperatures.

Top performers in those lists include:

  • Staten Island Chuck (NY) – about 85% accuracy over the past two decades, often cited as the most accurate in the U.S.
  • General Beauregard Lee (GA) – around 80% accuracy.
  • Lander Lil (WY – prairie dog statue) – roughly 75% accuracy, sometimes ranked second overall.

By contrast, Punxsutawney Phil , the celebrity of the bunch, sits near the bottom with only about 30–35% accuracy, depending on the time window and dataset used.

Mini table of “furry forecasters”

[4][7][3] [7][3] [1][3] [9][3][1]
Groundhog Location Approx. accuracy
Staten Island Chuck New York ~85%
General Beauregard Lee Georgia ~80%
Lander Lil Wyoming ~75%
Punxsutawney Phil Pennsylvania ~30–35%

How “accuracy” is actually measured

Behind the folklore, recent write‑ups describe a fairly simple method: compare each animal’s “early spring” vs “long winter” prediction to how warm or cold March actually was over many years.

Key points people in those analyses highlight:

  • Only animals with 20+ years of predictions are included, to avoid flukes.
  • The check is binary: did March behave more like “early spring” or “more winter” relative to normal?
  • When you do that, many lesser‑known local mascots quietly beat the famous Phil.

One tongue‑in‑cheek data‑driven discussion even notes that with Phil’s ~35% hit rate, you’d arguably do better just inverting whatever he says.

Different viewpoints: is any of this “real”?

Even in news and forum conversations, you see a few recurring perspectives:

  1. Fun folklore, not meteorology
    • Meteorologists and weather offices routinely point out that groundhogs are not real forecasting tools and that seasonal outlooks come from climate models, not rodents.
  1. Cool for local pride
    • Cities and regions love “their” groundhog because of community tradition, even if the stats are shaky. Staten Island media, for example, lean into Chuck’s high ranking as a fun local bragging right.
  1. Data‑nerd entertainment
    • Data visualizations and ranking charts treat this as a playful way to explore probability and bias, rather than a serious performance league for animal forecasters.

So if you’re asking which groundhog is most accurate in a numbers sense, the current crown belongs to Staten Island Chuck , with General Beauregard Lee and Lander Lil also looking surprisingly good in the stats.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.