Right now, the NFC South is wide open enough that three teams still have a path, but only two can actually finish as division champs depending on the final game.

Current NFC South picture

  • The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 8–9 heading into the last Sunday action, with Tampa Bay holding the inside track if Atlanta does not win.
  • The Falcons sit at 7–9 and can force a wild three-way tie at the top if they beat the Saints, which would trigger tiebreakers.
  • The Saints are 6–10 and already eliminated from NFC South title contention, though they can still decide who wins it by beating or tying Atlanta.

Who can actually win it?

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers :
    • Clinch the NFC South with a Saints win or tie against the Falcons, despite finishing 8–9.
* They are basically “scoreboard watching” New Orleans; they’re done playing but still control the outcome via that result.
  • Carolina Panthers :
    • Win the NFC South if the Falcons beat the Saints , creating a three-way tie at 8–9 between Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta.
* In that scenario, division-record tiebreakers favor Carolina (3–1 vs. the other two), putting them on top and into the playoffs.
  • Atlanta Falcons :
    • Can finish tied for the “top” record in the division by beating New Orleans, but the tiebreak math leaves them behind Carolina and Tampa Bay in the three-way tie.
* As a result, they are effectively out of contention for the _title_ even though they can still wreck the Buccaneers’ hopes and hand it to Carolina.

Simple answer

  • Teams that can still win the NFC South going into the final Sunday:
    • Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
* Carolina Panthers.
  • Teams that cannot win the division anymore :
    • Atlanta Falcons.
* New Orleans Saints.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.