Several teams can still win the Six Nations this year, but France, England and Ireland are the realistic contenders based on current odds, data models and round‑by‑round permutations.

Tournament picture right now

  • France are slight favourites to retain the title, thanks to strong recent form and a favourable schedule with key games at home.
  • England are close behind, with some models giving them roughly a 30% chance of winning the Championship.
  • Ireland remain in the mix but need other results to go their way on the final weekend (“Super Saturday”).
  • Scotland have an outside shot in some scenarios, but it typically requires multiple upsets and bonus‑point swings.
  • Wales and Italy are effectively out of the title race this year, reflected in very long pre‑tournament odds.

In most permutations discussed by rugby writers and broadcasters, any champion on the final day is almost always France, England or Ireland, with France “in the driving seat.”

What the stats and odds say

  • A major bookmaker had pre‑tournament outright odds roughly like this for 2026: France clear favourites (short odds), England second, Ireland third, with Scotland a distant fourth, and Wales/Italy huge outsiders.
  • An Opta supercomputer simulation put France around a 49% chance, England around 30%, and Ireland just under 20% to win the Championship.
  • That modelling is based on team strength, form, home/away fixtures and bonus‑point probabilities, not fan sentiment.

Title contenders table

[7][8][1][3][5] [9][3][5] [8][9][5] [6][3][9][5]
Team How they can win Key factors
France Win on Super Saturday or lose narrowly while rivals slip; most scenarios still favour them. Strong squad depth, home advantage vs big sides, already leading most predictive models.
England Need to win their final game (especially vs France) and often need France to drop points elsewhere or lose by enough. Great recent form but some injuries in the pack; still given ~30% by data models.
Ireland Must win on the last day, usually with a bonus or points‑difference swing, plus a favourable result in France–England. Injuries and suspensions make it harder; media describe their route to the title as “permutations” rather than likely.
Scotland Need a win and other results to break perfectly (including France and/or England slipping badly). Talked about as outsiders; fan forums see their path as possible but unlikely.

Forum and media chatter

  • Pundit pieces and fan forums are split between “France to finish the job” and “England to nick it late,” with Ireland usually mentioned as the dangerous outsider.
  • Final‑round previews talk about three‑way title permutations for Super Saturday, underlining how tight the top of the table is.

A typical media angle right now: “France are favourites, but three teams could still lift the trophy if results fall their way on the final day.”

TL;DR: France, England and Ireland can all still win the Six Nations, with France best placed, England very live contenders, and Ireland needing more help from other results; Scotland have a long‑shot path, while Wales and Italy are out of the title race.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.