Right now, sportsbooks and prediction models very slightly lean toward the Broncos as the favorite, but the gap over the Bills is small.

Odds snapshot

  • Several major books list Denver as about a 1.5‑point favorite at home, with moneyline prices roughly around Broncos in the -115 to -120 range and Bills near even money, signaling a modest edge to Denver.
  • Some analytics models and media previews give the Broncos win probabilities in the mid‑50% range (around 55–56%), again suggesting they are favored but not by a wide margin.

Why the Broncos are slightly favored

  • Home field at altitude (Empower Field) plus Denver’s strong home record this season (8–1 at home entering this matchup) are key reasons the market leans their way.
  • Simulation‑based previews and betting intel pieces explicitly recommend Broncos moneyline as the “best bet,” projecting close final scores like 23–21 or 24–22 for Denver.

Why some still like the Bills

  • Certain betting recommendations and algorithms still see a narrow Bills edge, suggesting Buffalo by a slim margin or giving them win probabilities just over 50%, reflecting respect for Josh Allen and the Bills’ playoff form.
  • Public betting splits at at least one major sportsbook show more tickets and handle on Buffalo despite Denver being a small favorite, indicating many bettors think the Bills can pull the mini‑upset.

Bottom line: The Broncos are the official betting favorite by a small margin, but projections and public money show this is viewed as a near coin‑flip game rather than a clear mismatch.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.