Right now, the leading favourites for the next Rugby World Cup are generally seen as the “big four”: New Zealand, South Africa, France, and Ireland , with England and Australia usually mentioned just behind them as contenders.

Current favourites (overview)

Most betting markets and prediction models lean toward:

  • New Zealand (All Blacks) – Historically dominant, consistently deep runs in every World Cup, and almost always in the top two or three in the odds.
  • South Africa (Springboks) – Record World Cup winners, extremely strong knockout‑rugby DNA, and usually rated either joint‑favourites or just behind New Zealand.
  • France – A stacked generation, home‑tournament bounce last time and still regarded as one of the most talented squads in the world.
  • Ireland – Came into the last World Cup as No.1 and many fans and analysts still see them as one of the best‑coached, most cohesive teams when they’re on form.

A lot of fan discussion also puts England and Australia in the “realistic winners” group, even if they aren’t the shortest odds right now.

What forums and fans are saying

On rugby forums, you’ll typically see a spread like:

  • Some posters confidently backing Ireland or France based on recent form in Six Nations and previous World Cup cycle.
  • Others still saying “never write off” New Zealand or South Africa , because they tend to peak when it matters most.
  • A chunk of self‑deprecating English and Welsh fans joking that their teams will crash out early, even while acknowledging that a hot run of form could change everything.

“My prediction is one of England, South Africa, Australia or NZ will actually be the winners, but Argentina are right up there at the moment…”

That quote captures the mood: there’s a small circle of “true favourites”, plus a wider ring of dangerous outsiders like Argentina who could pull off an upset.

Dark horses to keep an eye on

Beyond the headline favourites, a few teams often come up as “if things fall their way” candidates:

  • Argentina – Physical, improving depth, and already have a history of making deep runs.
  • Scotland – Highly rated by some fans, especially if they string together consistent performances.
  • Wales – Frequently mentioned in a tongue‑in‑cheek way on Reddit, but also recognised as capable of over‑performing when they click.

These sides usually sit longer in the odds but are seen as capable of knocking out one of the giants in a quarter‑final.

Why it’s still wide open

Even the more “data‑driven” attempts to forecast Rugby World Cups stress how uncertain it all is: injuries, tournament draw, refereeing interpretations and form spikes can all flip the script in a few weeks. A team that looks like a clear favourite now can suddenly look vulnerable after a poor Six Nations, Rugby Championship, or a key player going down.

So if you’re asking “who is favourite to win the rugby world cup” in the most realistic sense:

  • New Zealand and South Africa are almost always at or near the top of the odds tables.
  • France and Ireland round out the top tier in most fan and analyst discussions.

But there’s a strong argument that the next tournament is more open than many previous ones, with at least six or seven teams who could credibly lift the Webb Ellis Cup. Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.