who should win mvp
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the strongest case to win MVP right now, with Luka Dončić as the clearest alternative if narratives or team records shift late in the season.
Where the race stands
- Betting markets and odds have Shai as a heavy favorite, with significantly negative odds that signal a strong lead over the field.
- Media ladders and straw polls consistently place Shai and Nikola Jokić at or near the top, with Luka usually in the next tier depending on health and team record.
Why Shai should win MVP
- Elite efficiency and volume : Shai is putting up top-tier scoring while flirting with career-best shooting splits and low turnovers, which voters love because it blends box-score dominance with efficiency.
- Team success: Oklahoma City is tracking as a mid-60s-to-70-win team, and historically MVP almost always goes to a superstar on a top-2 regular-season team.
- Two-way impact: He is driving an elite offense while contributing real value defensively on a team that profiles as one of the better defenses in the league.
The best alternative cases
- Luka Dončić:
- Leads the league in scoring and drives almost everything for the Lakers’ offense.
* If Los Angeles finishes with a top record and OKC cools off, the combination of narrative (usage, scoring titles) plus wins could swing some ballots his way.
- Nikola Jokić (health caveat):
- When healthy, many models and trackers still grade him as the most impactful offensive player in basketball.
* An injury, though, has undercut the volume and games-played argument that MVP voters usually require in recent years.
Snapshot of current favorites
| Player | Team | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | Heavy betting favorite; elite efficiency on a potential 65+ win team. | [2][5]
| Luka Dončić | Lakers | Top scorer on a strong team; primary challenger if OKC slips or voters lean toward volume offense. | [3][4]
| Nikola Jokić | Nuggets | Top-tier impact when healthy, but injury and games played weaken his path this season. | [1][3]
Forum-style take
If the season ended today , the MVP should go to Shai: he checks every traditional box (numbers, wins, narrative) while still passing the advanced- metrics smell test. Luka is the “if things break weird in March and April” candidate, and Jokić is the “best player, wrong season” option because of the injury and games-played concerns.
TL;DR: In terms of “who should win MVP” rather than just “who will,” Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the cleanest, least-arguable resume this season, with Luka Dončić as the only realistic late-season threat if team records or storylines flip.
Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.
