No one can be named as the definite UK Christmas Number One this far in advance, but recent chart trends and betting odds suggest a few very likely contenders rather than a single guaranteed winner. The race is usually decided only in the final days before Christmas, and late surges, charity singles, or viral tracks often flip the result at the last moment.

How the Christmas No. 1 works

  • The UK Christmas Number One is the single that sits at the top of the Official Singles Chart in the sales/streaming week that includes Christmas Day.
  • It is compiled from a mix of streams and sales, including downloads and physical formats, which means a well-organised fanbase or viral moment can swing the outcome late in the week.

Recent patterns and momentum

  • In recent years, older festive hits and big pop campaigns have dominated – for example, Wham!’s “Last Christmas” managed consecutive Christmas Number Ones in the mid‑2020s after first topping the chart decades after release.
  • Campaign‑driven pushes still matter: charity releases, fan‑backed social media drives, and TV tie‑ins (like talent shows or big adverts) regularly turn an apparent outsider into a Christmas‑week frontrunner.

Current frontrunners and buzz

  • Coverage of the 2025 race highlighted Kylie Minogue’s festive single “XMAS” as the odds favourite ahead of Christmas, with Wham! and a Gaza charity single among the other major contenders.
  • Industry press later reported that Kylie did indeed secure the Christmas Number One with “XMAS,” powered by a strong, highly visible campaign, showing how a focused strategy can beat perennial streaming giants.

Why it’s hard to predict

  • Streaming behaviour can shift quickly when a track goes viral on TikTok or gains heavy playlisting, so a song that looks safe at Number One a week out can still be overtaken.
  • Bookmakers’ odds and midweek chart “first look” updates offer clues, but these only show what would be Number One if the chart closed that day, not the final Christmas‑week result.

If you’re following the trending topic

  • To track “who will be Christmas Number One” as the week approaches, fans usually watch:
    • Official Charts “First Look” updates and news posts, which give early positions.
* Entertainment and music news sites that summarise latest odds and campaign momentum for the likely contenders.

Bottom line: there is no confirmed answer yet to “who will be Christmas Number One,” but history suggests it will be either a heavily‑backed pop single (often with a big TV or global star) or a massively streamed festive classic that surges in the final pre‑Christmas chart week.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.