No one can say with certainty in advance who will win the 2024 election in India, but we now know from later reporting that the BJP‑led NDA did return to power, while the BJP itself lost its solo majority and had to rely on allies to form the government.

Quick Scoop

  • Exit polls and early projections in late May–early June 2024 suggested a comfortable win and even a potential “landslide” for Narendra Modi and the BJP‑led NDA.
  • When the official results came, the NDA did win again, but the BJP’s seat tally fell compared with 2019, and it needed coalition partners to cross the majority mark in the Lok Sabha.
  • Before results day, most forum discussions and many pundits were debating only how big the BJP victory would be, not whether the opposition could stop it.

What predictions were saying (before results)

Many mainstream opinion and exit polls in 2024 projected that the BJP and the NDA would comfortably retain power at the national level. Analysts pointed to Narendra Modi’s personal popularity, a strong campaign narrative, and economic indicators like high growth as key advantages for the ruling alliance.

On Indian forums, a lot of users predicted that the BJP would “sweep” large Hindi‑belt states such as Uttar Pradesh and make further inroads in places like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana, while facing stronger opposition in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala. There was also debate about the BJP’s “400 paar” slogan, with many treating it as an ambitious stretch goal rather than a realistic baseline.

What actually happened in 2024

Once votes were counted, the broad prediction that the NDA would return to power turned out to be correct, but with a twist.

  • The BJP emerged as the single largest party but dropped to 240 seats, down from 303 in 2019.
  • The NDA as a whole kept a majority, winning around 293 out of 543 seats, allowing it to form the government.
  • This meant the BJP had to lean more on allies, making the new government more coalition‑driven than the previous two Modi terms.

In other words, many early narratives about a record‑shattering, one‑party landslide were overstated, but the core forecast—NDA back in power under Modi—held up.

Why predictions were tricky

Indian general elections are huge and complex: 900M+ eligible voters, strong regional parties, and multi‑phase voting over weeks. Polls and forum chatter can capture broad trends but often miss:

  • State‑specific undercurrents and anti‑incumbency.
  • The impact of alliances breaking or forming late.
  • Turnout shifts among youth, women, and rural voters.

A good illustration is that pre‑result expectations leaned heavily toward an even bigger BJP wave, but the final numbers showed voter appetite for continuity with some balance, cutting the BJP’s solo strength while still keeping the NDA in power.

Bottom line for “who will win 2024 election in India”: the BJP‑led NDA stayed in government with Narendra Modi as prime minister, but on a more coalition‑dependent basis than many pre‑election forecasts had projected.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.