Lionel Messi won the 2023 Ballon d'Or, so in hindsight the answer to “who will win Ballon d'Or 2023” is Lionel Messi for the men’s award and Aitana Bonmatí for the women’s award.

Quick Scoop: Who will win Ballon d’Or 2023?

When people were asking “who will win Ballon d'Or 2023,” the debate was mainly between Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland on the men’s side, with Aitana Bonmatí the clear favorite for the women’s trophy.

If we freeze time before the ceremony and talk in predictive terms:

  • Messi had the World Cup narrative with Argentina, plus a strong final season in Europe and a high-profile move to Inter Miami.
  • Haaland had a record‑breaking goal tally and a historic treble with Manchester City (Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup).
  • Kylian Mbappé, Kevin De Bruyne, and Vinícius Jr. were seen as outside contenders but generally a tier below those two in most discussions.

On the women’s side:

  • Aitana Bonmatí was widely predicted to win thanks to a stunning season with Barcelona and Spain, dominating most expert and fan shortlists.
  • Other names in the mix included Sam Kerr and Alex Popp, but they were usually ranked behind Bonmatí in predictions.

What actually happened (results)

Although your question is phrased as a prediction, the 2023 awards are now known:

  • Lionel Messi won the 2023 Ballon d’Or (men), securing his eighth Golden Ball and extending his all‑time record.
  • Aitana Bonmatí won the 2023 Ballon d’Or Féminin (women), confirming what most prediction lists had suggested.

Why Messi “was always likely” to win

From a “who will win” perspective, many analysts leaned toward Messi because:

  • World Cup 2022 was heavily weighted in voters’ minds, and Messi was the driving force behind Argentina’s title.
  • Narrative matters: an all‑time great, potentially his last World Cup, and a historic eighth Ballon d'Or storyline.

Haaland’s case rested on:

  • Incredible club statistics (over 50 goals) and a treble with Manchester City.
  • The argument that recent criteria focus more on the season than on legacy, which should have favored him.

Forum and trending discussion vibes

Around 2023, fan and forum debates typically broke into camps:

  • “World Cup + legacy” camp arguing that Messi’s season plus Qatar 2022 made him the deserved winner.
  • “Pure performance and trophies” camp insisting Haaland’s numbers and treble should outweigh narrative and sentiment.

Simulations and fan content even ran game‑based predictions (for example, EA Sports FC simulations that had Haaland as a 2023 winner in some scenarios), which fueled speculation but did not match the real‑world vote.

Simple takeaway

If you’re asking today who will win Ballon d'Or 2023, the practical answer is:

  • Men: Lionel Messi (already confirmed winner).
  • Women: Aitana Bonmatí (already confirmed winner).

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.