Colombia looks slightly more likely to win, but it’s a tight matchup. The strongest pre-match preview I found gives Colombia a 41.9% chance to win in regulation, compared with 28.2% for Switzerland, with 29.9% for extra time.

Why Colombia edges it

  • Colombia have been very solid defensively, conceding just one goal in the tournament so far.
  • They also come in with strong attacking form from players like Luis Díaz and Daniel Muñoz.
  • Switzerland’s outlook is a bit less certain because of fitness concerns around Johan Manzambi, Ruben Vargas, and Djibril Sow.

Why Switzerland can still win

  • Switzerland have already shown they can control games and they’ve had the advantage of playing at the same venue multiple times.
  • Their attack has been productive, with Manzambi, Breel Embolo, Dan Ndoye, and Vargas contributing heavily to their goals.
  • The head-to-head is not one-sided enough to rule them out, especially in a knockout match.

Best read

If you want the safest lean: Colombia. If you want the realistic upset path: Switzerland can absolutely make it a close game, and extra time is a live possibility.

TeamWin chance in regulation
Colombia41.9%
Switzerland28.2%
Extra time29.9%