Duke already won this matchup, 71–65 over Siena in the first round of the 2026 NCAA men’s tournament, so the answer is: Duke.

What happened in the game?

  • Duke was the No. 1 overall seed; Siena was a No. 16 seed.
  • Siena actually led by double digits at halftime, up 43–32, which is extremely rare for a 16-seed against a 1-seed.
  • Duke stormed back in the second half, outscoring Siena by 17 to win 71–65.

Siena had Duke genuinely on the ropes for most of the game, turning what was expected to be a blowout into a near-upset thriller.

Why Duke was favored

  • Sportsbooks had Duke as roughly a 28.5‑point favorite with a huge moneyline edge (around Duke -20000 vs Siena +3500).
  • Duke came in at 32–2 and was considered the betting favorite or one of the main favorites to win the entire tournament.
  • Siena was a solid mid-major but clearly outmatched in depth and talent over 40 minutes, which showed as they wore down in the second half.

Key players and turning points

  • Cameron Boozer scored 22 points, including 13-of-14 at the free-throw line, powering Duke’s late comeback.
  • Cayden Boozer added 19 points on efficient shooting, giving Duke a reliable second scoring option.
  • A late 9–0 run flipped a small Siena lead into a Duke advantage in the final minutes, effectively deciding the game.

So “who will win, Duke or Siena?”

If you’re asking in a predictive sense about that specific NCAA tournament game, the result is already in: Duke won.

If you mean a hypothetical future Duke–Siena matchup, recent evidence plus talent and seeding suggest Duke would usually be the safer pick, though this game showed Siena can make it a scare.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.