No one knows for sure yet who will win the 2026 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, but we can talk about the most likely candidates based on odds and expert predictions.

Current favorites and odds

Sportsbooks and prediction markets have a clear top tier of contenders.

  • Carter Bryant (Spurs)
    • Listed as the betting favorite or co-favorite at around +180 to +190, implying roughly a one‑third chance to win.
* Rookie wing known for explosive athleticism and a roughly 39.5‑inch vertical; scouts and betting markets see him as the “safe” favorite.
  • Jaxson Hayes (Lakers)
    • Often just behind Bryant in the odds (around +175 to +250, roughly 30% implied range).
* A 7‑foot center with big‑man power and flair; some analysts pick him as the best “volume and consistency” dunker and the safest bet overall.
  • Keshad Johnson (Heat)
    • Odds typically sit in the mid‑tier (+320 to +450).
* About 6'6" with a reported 42‑inch vertical, one of the highest in the field; at least one major preview explicitly predicts him to win because of his vertical and creativity.
  • Jase Richardson (Magic)
    • Longest shot on most boards (+350 to +500).
* Underdog narrative: 6'1" guard, son of two‑time champion Jason Richardson, with a growing highlight reel of in‑game dunks; some bettors like him precisely because the contest often rewards smaller high‑flyers.

Quick probability snapshot (implied from public odds)

  • Carter Bryant: roughly 30–35% implied chance.
  • Jaxson Hayes: roughly 25–32% implied chance.
  • Keshad Johnson: roughly 18–24% implied chance.
  • Jase Richardson: roughly 15–20% implied chance.

These are only estimates from betting markets and can move as we get closer to the event.

Who different analysts are picking

Different outlets are planting their flags on different names.

  • Betting-line view:
    • Multiple books list Carter Bryant as the favorite.
  • Analyst pick for athleticism:
    • One preview leans to Keshad Johnson , citing his 42‑inch vertical and overall bounce as the X‑factor.
  • Narrative/value pick:
    • Another outlet chooses Jase Richardson as a best bet because smaller guards with big hops often steal the show, and his father’s legacy adds story value.
  • Market‑wisdom angle:
    • A prediction market write‑up gives a slight edge to Jaxson Hayes , arguing his size plus above‑the‑rim track record make him the “safest” all‑around choice.

Simple comparison table

[3][1] [7][1][3] [5][1][3] [7][1][3][5] [3][5] [5][7][3] [3][5] [5][3] [1][3][5] [7][1][3] [1][7][5] [1] [3][5] [7][3] [5][7][3] [7][3]
Player Team Typical odds range Main selling point Who’s picking him?
Carter Bryant Spurs +175 to +190 Explosive rookie, strong vertical, market favorite Sportsbooks, prediction markets
Jaxson Hayes Lakers +175 to +250 7‑footer with power and creativity Some analysts, prediction‑market preview
Keshad Johnson Heat +320 to +450 42‑inch vertical, big in‑air creativity At least one major betting article’s official pick
Jase Richardson Magic +350 to +500 Undersized high‑flyer, strong family legacy “Value” and long‑shot pick in betting previews

A balanced prediction (with some storytelling)

If you imagine the contest as a mini‑movie, each player has a clear role.

  • Bryant is the “anointed” rookie, the guy the odds say should win.
  • Hayes is the towering showman, where every dunk looks easy because of his size.
  • Johnson is the pure jumper, the one who might pull off something we’ve never seen because of that vertical.
  • Richardson is the legacy character, trying to recreate his dad’s magic in a new era.

Given how often dunk contests reward surprise and “wow” factor from smaller players, there’s a real case for a risky pick like Jase Richardson or Keshad Johnson , even though the numbers lean toward Carter Bryant or Jaxson Hayes.

If you want a single answer framed the way forums and betting previews are talking right now:

  • Safest “who will win the dunk contest” pick: Carter Bryant (favorite across most books).
  • Popular contrarian picks: Jaxson Hayes for reliability, Keshad Johnson or Jase Richardson if you’re chasing style points and an upset.

TL;DR: The betting markets say Carter Bryant, but this is the dunk contest—don’t be shocked if a high‑flying underdog like Jase Richardson or Keshad Johnson walks away with the trophy instead.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.