No one can say with certainty who will win the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but we can talk about who the favorites and interesting longshots are based on odds and expert previews.

Who will win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

You’re really asking: “Who looks most likely to win this week?” In golf, even the biggest favorite only wins a small share of the time, so the best we can do is talk in probabilities and value picks, not guarantees.

The main favorites

Sportsbooks and golf analysts are leaning heavily toward the world No. 1 and a small group of elite players.

  • Scottie Scheffler – the clear betting favorite around +260 to +300, coming off a win at The Desert Classic and already with strong recent form.
  • Rory McIlroy – defending champion at Pebble, priced roughly in the +1300 range and making his season debut, which adds both upside and rust risk.
  • Next tier of contenders – names like Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Justin Rose, and Maverick McNealy cluster behind the big two in the odds, generally in the +2200 to +3000 range.

From a “who will win Pebble Beach Pro-Am” angle, Scheffler is the most logical prediction, but not an especially attractive betting number because golf is so volatile.

Sharper expert picks and sleepers

Handicappers often look past the shortest favorites to find players whose odds don’t quite match their statistical profile.

Some of the more notable speculative picks:

  • Russell Henley – tabbed as an outright winner pick at roughly +3100 to +3300 thanks to elite approach numbers and a long run of top‑20 finishes, even though he has never won in California.
  • Sepp Straka – highlighted as a top sleeper near +4500 to +6000 after a T7 at Pebble in 2025 and strong tee‑to‑green metrics early in 2026, but with an inconsistent putter.
  • Pierceson Coody – flagged by multiple betting previews as a “best longshot,” with prices from about +5700 to +6600 and a profile of high driving distance, strong off‑the‑tee play, and a run of top‑20 finishes to start the year.

A reasonable “who will win” prediction list many fans are kicking around online would look like:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (most likely, but low betting value).
  1. Rory McIlroy (defending champ with upside if the game is sharp right away).
  1. Value shots like Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, or Pierceson Coody if you want longer odds who still fit the course statistically.

Key factors that will decide it

When people on golf forums and betting shows break down “who will win Pebble Beach Pro-Am,” they keep coming back to three on-course themes.

  • Approach play from short and mid‑irons: Pebble produces a lot of approaches from roughly 50–150 yards, so precise wedge and short‑iron play is critical.
  • Short game and around‑the‑green: models give meaningful weight to strokes gained around the green because small targets and coastal winds punish missed greens.
  • Course history and rotation comfort: this event’s rotation (Pebble multiple times plus Spyglass, etc.) means players with past success and comfort in the format often get bumped in projection models.

An example you’ll see discussed is a player who is top‑tier in strokes‑gained approach over the last six months, solid around the green, and with positive Pebble history being pushed up model rankings even if the raw odds market is a bit slow to adjust.

How experts and odds compare

Here’s a compact look at how some names sit in the “who will win Pebble Beach Pro-Am” conversation:

[3][5] [5][3] [3][5] [5][3] [1][3][5] [1][3] [1][3] [1][3] [7][5] [7][5]
Player General odds range Narrative
Scottie Scheffler About +260 to +300 World No. 1, recent winner, statistical juggernaut, clear favorite to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Rory McIlroy Around +1300 Defending champion at Pebble, elite ceiling but some uncertainty in season debut.
Russell Henley Roughly +3100 to +3300 Model darling with excellent approach play and long top‑20 streak; popular value pick to win.
Sepp Straka About +4500 to +6000 Great recent Pebble form and strong tee‑to‑green stats, but streaky putting holds him back.
Pierceson Coody About +5700 to +6600 Powerful off the tee with multiple top‑20s this year; widely praised as a live longshot to win.

So, who should you say will win?

If you just want one name to answer “who will win Pebble Beach Pro-Am,” the safest prediction by consensus is Scottie Scheffler, because he is the clear favorite in both odds and expert models.

If you want a more fun, higher‑odds call that still has some analytic backing, many sharp previews are leaning toward someone like Russell Henley as a value winner pick, with Coody or Straka as bolder outsider calls.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.