No one can say with certainty who will win the 2026 WM Phoenix Open, but most betting markets and predictive models currently point to Scottie Scheffler as the clear favorite, with Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young usually next in line among contenders.

Quick Scoop: What the Odds Say

  • Scottie Scheffler is listed as a short-priced favorite (around +220 to +250 in many markets), reflecting both his current form and his past dominance at TPC Scottsdale.
  • Xander Schauffele sits in the next tier of odds (often in the +1700 to +1900 range), seen as the main “threat” if Scheffler doesn’t fire.
  • Cameron Young, Sam Burns, Si Woo Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama typically populate the chasing pack, with mid-range outright prices that indicate “real but not favorite” chances.

In other words, markets are basically asking: Can anyone stop Scheffler at TPC Scottsdale?

“Scheffler is the +220 favorite… followed by Schauffele at +1900.”

“Scheffler… the favorite as he comes off a victory in his last PGA Tour start.”

Why Scheffler Is Favored

  • Course history: Scheffler won the WM Phoenix Open in 2022 and successfully defended in 2023, so he already has multiple titles on this course.
  • Current form: Recent previews highlight him coming off a win in his previous PGA Tour start, which boosts both public perception and model-based win probabilities.
  • Stat profile: Analytics-based previews emphasize strokes gained: approach and off the tee, driving distance, and putting as key at TPC Scottsdale, all areas where Scheffler grades out extremely well when he’s on.

Because of that combination—elite ball-striking, proven comfort at TPC Scottsdale, and recent winning form—many simulation models give him the highest single-player win probability in the field.

Other Popular Picks and Dark Horses

Several analysts and betting previews mention alternative names if you don’t want to back the heavy favorite:

  • Xander Schauffele: Consistently one of the best tee‑to‑green players, sits second in the odds and is viewed as the most likely beneficiary if Scheffler has an off week.
  • Cameron Young: Highlighted in odds ranges around +2000 to +2200; strong driver of the ball, which fits the driver‑heavy setup at TPC Scottsdale.
  • Maverick McNealy & Sahith Theegala: Some betting write‑ups like McNealy and Theegala in “without Scheffler” markets and for top‑20 finishes, citing strong strokes‑gained numbers at this course.
  • Sepp Straka: Identified in one analysis as a longer‑odds play after a strong 2025 season with multiple wins; seen as a “closer” who can convert if he gets into contention.

These aren’t consensus “favorites” to win outright over Scheffler, but they are the kind of names that appear over and over in expert picks and blog previews.

Phoenix Open 2026: Favorites Snapshot

Here’s a simple view of how the top of the market currently looks in many previews (odds ranges approximate, since each book differs slightly):

[5][7][1] [2][3] [5][7][1] [1][5] [7][1] [6][2] [7] [7] [5][1][7] [6][5]
Player Typical outright odds range Why they’re talked about
Scottie Scheffler +220 to +250Multiple past wins at TPC Scottsdale, elite recent form, top strokes‑gained profile.
Xander Schauffele +1700 to +1900Consistent top‑tier ball striker, widely viewed as the main challenger.
Cameron Young +2000 to +2200Big‑hitting profile fits the driver‑heavy setup; often touted as “breakthrough” candidate.
Sam Burns Around +2200Strong putter and scorer when hot, attractive mid‑tier number.
Si Woo Kim / Hideki Matsuyama +2200 to +2500Proven winners with solid tee‑to‑green games; considered high‑upside but less consistent than Scheffler.

Speculation, Not Certainty

  • Golf events have large fields and high variance; even a strong favorite like Scheffler typically has a win probability under 30–35% in most serious models.
  • Upsets do happen, and some longshots have been recommended in detailed betting guides and forum‑style posts, sometimes more for entertainment than hard math.
  • If you’re following this as a trending sports topic, the fun part is watching whether the “inevitable” favorite actually converts, or whether a streaky ball‑striker or underrated putter steals it on Sunday.

TL;DR: The smart consensus is that Scheffler is the man to beat at the Phoenix Open 2026, but the actual winner will only be known once play finishes—so any pick right now is informed speculation, not a guarantee.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.