Nobody knows for sure who will win the Premier League this season, but Arsenal are in the strongest position right now, with Manchester City (and to a lesser extent Aston Villa) the main threats.

Where the title race stands

  • Arsenal are top of the 2025/26 Premier League table, with a small but clear points cushion over Manchester City.
  • City are within touching distance, keeping the pressure on and ensuring this is still likely a two‑team race rather than a walkover.
  • Aston Villa are further back, still mathematically in the race but increasingly treated as outsiders compared with Arsenal and City.

In other words, the title is still open, but the current balance of power leans towards an Arsenal triumph if they hold their nerve over the run‑in.

Why Arsenal look like favourites

  • Arsenal have built a points lead (variously reported as three to six points, depending on games played), giving them margin for a slip where City have almost none.
  • Their remaining fixture list is described as relatively favourable in May, with several winnable games and no traditional “Big Six” opponents in the final stretch.
  • Analysts highlight that if Arsenal avoid defeat away to Manchester City in April, their final run‑in gives them an excellent chance to finally finish the job.

An example scenario often discussed: Arsenal go to the Etihad, avoid defeat, and then close out against mid‑table or lower‑table sides, turning their current lead into the title.

Why Manchester City can still win

  • City have recent momentum from big results (like a late comeback at Liverpool), reminding everyone they are still capable of long winning runs.
  • They have deeper squad experience in title run‑ins and are used to chasing down leaders over the final third of a season.
  • If Arsenal drop points in a tricky spell (for example away at Brentford or in other tough fixtures), City are positioned to punish any slip immediately.

In short, City’s path is narrower but very real: they likely need to win most of their remaining games and target that head‑to‑head against Arsenal as a must‑win opportunity.

What models and pundits are saying

  • Data‑driven previews of recent seasons show how predictive models simulate the remaining fixtures thousands of times, often giving the top team a notable edge but not certainty.
  • For 2025/26 specifically, live prediction models and pundit round‑ups frame this as Arsenal’s title to lose, with City as the primary alternative outcome.
  • Earlier expert and “supercomputer” predictions heading into the season tended to put City and Arsenal as the top two, which is exactly how the race has unfolded.

These views don’t guarantee anything, but they converge on the idea that probabilities favour Arsenal while still leaving meaningful chances for City.

So, who will win the Premier League?

Putting it all together:

  • Most likely outcome: Arsenal win the Premier League if they maintain their current points advantage and avoid a wobble in their toughest remaining fixtures.
  • Main alternative: Manchester City surge late, exploit any Arsenal slip, and flip the race in the direct clash and over the final weeks.
  • Outside shot: Aston Villa or another outsider string together an exceptional run, but current form and underlying numbers suggest this is unlikely.

If you like it in “forum style”:
“Right now it’s Arsenal’s title to lose, but you’d be brave to bet against City in a run‑in. The smart pick is Arsenal; the chaos pick is City.”

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.