No one can say with certainty who will win the 2026 Waste Management (WM Phoenix Open), but we can talk about who’s most likely based on current odds and expert previews.

Quick Scoop: What We Actually Know

  • The betting favorite right now is Scottie Scheffler , with very short odds around +210 to +220 at major sportsbooks, putting him clearly ahead of the field.
  • Next tier of contenders often mentioned: Xander Schauffele, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Viktor Hovland , and others in the 15–30/1 zone depending on the book.
  • Recent previews highlight:
    • Scheffler’s strong early‑2026 form and previous success in Phoenix.
* The fact that recent winners here have sometimes come from long‑shot territory (Nick Taylor, Thomas Detry), reminding everyone that upsets are common.

So, the most honest answer is: Scheffler is the clear favorite, but the tournament is wide open and a long shot can absolutely win.

Favorites and Their Chances

Here’s a compact look at how the market is pricing “who will win the Waste Management Open” right now (odds approximate and vary by site):

[8][1][3][6] [1][8] [8][1][3] [1][6] [6]
Player Typical outright odds range Why people like this pick
Scottie Scheffler ≈ +210 to +220 Elite tee‑to‑green, already a multiple-time winner at this event, coming in with hot form in early 2026.
Xander Schauffele ≈ +1700 to +2000 High‑end ball striker, near the top of several odds boards behind Scheffler.
Cameron Young ≈ +2000 to +2700 One of the most talked‑about “breakthrough win” candidates; listed in the upper tier of favorites.
Hideki Matsuyama ≈ +2600 to under 30/1 Past champion at TPC Scottsdale, repeatedly listed as a key contender with sub‑30/1 odds.
Si Woo Kim Under 30/1 cluster Included among the short‑odds group behind Scheffler in some previews.
Because Scheffler’s odds are so short, markets are effectively saying: **“He’s the most likely single winner, but the field (everyone else combined) is still far more likely than he is.”**

Long Shots and Model Picks

Public betting guides and predictive models are also flagging some deeper names:

  • Some expert previews list Wyndham Clark, Min Woo Lee, Harry Hall, Nicolai Højgaard, Davis Thompson in the 70/1–80/1 zone as live underdogs with upside.
  • There’s specific love for:
    • Wyndham Clark in matchup and outright discussions as a “buy‑the‑ceiling” option.
* **Sepp Straka** as a long shot whose odds may be depressed by one bad early‑season result but whose 2025 wins and 15th place here last year suggest upside at TPC Scottsdale.
  • Recent history at this event shows that very big prices have won : Nick Taylor and Thomas Detry both took the title at triple‑digit odds in the last few years, which is why some analysts are deliberately targeting the 80/1–150/1 range instead of only the favorites.

In other words, if you’re looking for a “fun” speculative pick, many previews are pushing one favorite (Scheffler) + one mid‑tier + one long‑shot rather than going all‑in on the chalk.

If You Want a Practical Take

If you absolutely want a “who will win” style answer, framed as opinion rather than certainty:

  1. Most likely winner (market view)
    • Scottie Scheffler — the odds, course history, and form all point to him as the top choice.
  1. High‑end alternatives
    • Xander Schauffele or Cameron Young if you want someone still elite but at a more appealing price.
  1. Spicy long‑shot
    • A name like Sepp Straka, Wyndham Clark, or Min Woo Lee fits the “this event has produced surprise champions before” narrative.

But no model or expert can tell you who will win in advance with certainty; golf events over four days are inherently volatile, and a couple of bad bounces can flip the leaderboard. Bottom note: Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.