It’s very unlikely that the SAVE Act (and its newer version, the SAVE America Act) will pass the Senate as things stand now, but it’s not completely impossible in the long term.

Quick Scoop

  • The original Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R. 22) passed the House in April 2025 and was received in the Senate but stalled there and never got a vote.
  • Voting‑rights groups and climate and democracy advocates describe it as a major rollback of voting rights that would make registration harder for millions of eligible voters.
  • In February 2026, House Republicans instead advanced a reworked version, the SAVE America Act , a broader Trump‑backed election bill that also passed the House and is now headed to the Senate.
  • Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has said measures like this are “dead on arrival” in the Senate and “will not pass the Senate. Period,” signaling a filibuster‑level wall of opposition.
  • The Senate’s 60‑vote filibuster threshold makes passage very hard unless at least a handful of Democrats defect, which there is currently no sign of.

Where things stand now

  • The original SAVE Act :
    • Passed the House in April 2025.
    • Was sent to the Senate on April 10, 2025, and then stalled without final action.
* Advocacy groups now treat it as blocked and are focusing on making sure the Senate does not revive it.
  • The SAVE America Act (“SAVE Act 2.0”) :
    • Passed the Republican‑controlled House on February 11, 2026, with strong backing from President Trump.
* Expands beyond the original “only citizens vote” framing into a larger package of federal election rules, which has made even some previous Republican supporters (like Sen. Susan Collins) express concerns about this new version.

What the Senate math looks like

In the current Senate:

  • Democrats (and allied independents) are firmly against these bills, framing them as “Jim Crow‑type” restrictions and a “massive attack” on voting rights.
  • Republicans generally support the core idea, and Majority Leader John Thune has promised to bring the Trump‑backed bill up for a vote and says discussion in his caucus is “robust.”
  • However, Thune himself has also said there is not support in the GOP to scrap or weaken the 60‑vote filibuster rule just to pass it.

That combination means:

  • Even if Republicans can get a simple majority, they’re still likely short of 60 votes , so Democrats can block it.
  • Public statements from Schumer and voting‑rights groups are clearly aimed at keeping Democrats unified in opposition.

Simple probability view

No one can give a precise percentage, but given:

  • Strong ideological opposition from Democrats,
  • The 60‑vote threshold, and
  • No serious move to change filibuster rules for this bill,

the realistic near‑term outlook is “unlikely to pass unless the political dynamics change significantly.”

Key political arguments

Supporters say the SAVE/SAVE America bills:

  • Are needed to ensure only U.S. citizens vote.
  • Mainly add documentation and verification requirements that they argue are common‑sense.

Opponents argue the bills would:

  • Make registration harder for tens of millions of eligible voters who lack passports or easy access to birth certificates, especially voters of color, rural voters, people with disabilities, and climate‑disaster survivors.
  • Represent “the biggest legislative rollback of voting rights in our country’s history,” in the words of one major advocacy group.
  • Are part of a broader partisan fight over federal control of elections, which Senate Democrats strongly resist.

Snapshot of the two main bills

Here’s a quick look at how the current debate is framed:

[5][7] [7] [8][9][1] [3] [3][1] [10][3]
Bill Chamber status Core idea Main roadblock in Senate
Original SAVE Act (H.R. 22) Passed House in April 2025; received in Senate, then stalled.“Safeguard American Voter Eligibility” by tightening citizenship proof for voter registration.Democratic opposition; never brought to final vote.
SAVE America Act (“SAVE Act 2.0”) Passed House on Feb. 11, 2026; headed to Senate.Trump‑backed, broader election bill building on the SAVE Act idea and adding more federal rules.Likely filibuster; Schumer vows it is “dead on arrival,” and 60 votes are not in sight.

Bottom line

Barring a major political shock — such as several Democrats flipping or a change to Senate rules — the best current reading is that the SAVE Act/SAVE America Act faces extremely long odds in the Senate and is likely to be blocked there.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.