How Morocco’s fertiliser giant OCP was shaken by the Hormuz crisis

Morocco’s state-owned fertiliser champion OCP Group was hit hard when the Strait of Hormuz closed in early 2026, cutting off the sulfur feedstock it relies on to make phosphate fertilisers and forcing a temporary production cutback before the company engineered a partial recovery.

Theショック: a “sulfur trap” at the heart of OCP’s model

OCP is the world’s largest phosphate exporter, but its complex fertilisers—especially DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate)—depend on sulfuric acid, which in turn depends on elemental sulfur largely shipped from the Persian Gulf.

  • Before the crisis, OCP imported about 3.7 million metric tons of sulfur per year from Gulf suppliers.
  • Roughly half of global seaborne sulfur and a third of ammonia traditionally transit Hormuz.
  • When Iran blocked the Strait in March 2026 after US–Israeli strikes, tanker traffic effectively stopped and war-risk insurance was cancelled, choking off both finished fertiliser shipments and critical raw materials.

That created what analysts call a “cascading effect” : less sulfur → less sulfuric acid → lower DAP/MAP output → tighter global supply and higher prices.

How OCP reacted: cutting output, reshaping the product mix

Rather than burn cash buying sulfur at record prices, OCP chose a managed slowdown:

  • In early April 2026, it brought forward scheduled maintenance and pulled about 30% of fertiliser capacity offline.
  • Sulfur prices jumped from around $500/t to $1,400/t within weeks, making many producers unprofitable; OCP avoided accumulating ultra‑expensive inventories by throttling production.
  • At the same time, OCP accelerated a product pivot toward triple superphosphate (TSP) , which needs 30–50% less sulfur per unit than standard formulations.
* TSP’s share of output rose from roughly **30% in 2025 to over 50–65% in 2026** , depending on the source.

By late May/early June, OCP announced it would return to 100% capacity by end‑June 2026 , having secured sulfur stocks through July and diversified sourcing to Kazakhstan, Canada, the US and Europe.

Why OCP was both vulnerable and unusually resilient

OCP’s exposure came from geography and chemistry; its resilience came from cost structure and strategy. Vulnerabilities

  • Heavy Gulf dependence: OCP’s sulfur supply chain is tightly linked to Persian Gulf exports, so a Hormuz shutdown hits it directly.
  • Global role: With Morocco supplying a large share of the world’s phosphate fertiliser, any output cut ripples quickly to major importers like India, Brazil and the US.

Buffers and advantages

  • Cost leadership: Moroccan phosphate rock has favorable extraction and processing economics, letting OCP absorb higher sulfur costs better than many rivals.
  • Strategic stockpiling: OCP locked in sulfur before the worst of the price spike, giving it a runway into mid‑2026.
  • Product flexibility: Shifting toward TSP reduced sulfur intensity and helped OCP keep selling while competitors cut back more sharply.
  • Geopolitical positioning: As a non‑Gulf, non‑Russia supplier, OCP became a “go‑to” source for countries scrambling to replace blocked or sanctioned flows.

Competitors fared worse in some cases: US producer Mosaic cut capacity by around 50% at several sites, and some Brazilian plants halted entirely when sulfur at $1,400/t wiped out margins.

Market and macro fallout: prices, food security, and Morocco’s budget

The Hormuz disruption fed directly into a broader fertiliser shock:

  • The World Bank projected fertiliser prices up more than 30% in 2026 , with the risk of matching or exceeding 2022 peaks if the closure dragged on.
  • For import‑dependent countries, higher fertiliser costs squeeze farm margins without a matching rise in crop prices, raising food‑security concerns—especially in Africa, which buys about 42% of its phosphate fertilisers from Morocco.
  • For Morocco, OCP is a key export earner (around $11.4 billion in 2025), so any prolonged production hit translates into budget and current‑account risks, even as high prices partly offset lower volumes.

Rating agencies have flagged this as a material vulnerability: S&P kept Morocco at BBB– but warned that the Gulf supply shock puts a crucial export engine at risk.

Inside the company: pressure, rumors, and a “war footing”

The crisis wasn’t just logistical; it was also reputational and political:

  • In June 2026, local media reported rumors of cash‑flow difficulties and noted unusual silence from the group, before OCP clarified its return‑to‑full‑capacity plan.
  • Sources described OCP as going on a “war footing” , with the Moroccan state pressing CEO Mostafa Terrab to take responsibility for managing the shock and its fallout.
  • The firm also faced a separate technical incident on a production line, compounding the external supply shock with internal operational stress.

These details fed forum‑style speculation about OCP’s stability, even as the company moved to reassert control by restoring output and repositioning its product slate.

What this means for the “OCP story” going forward

The Hormuz episode has become a stress test—and partial validation—of Morocco’s 15‑year strategy to make OCP a central pillar of global food security:

  • It exposed how a single chokepoint (Hormuz) can jeopardise a company that sits on about 69% of the world’s known phosphate reserves.
  • It also highlighted OCP’s strategic importance : for Africa and many emerging markets, the firm’s ability to keep producing is no longer just commercial—it’s linked to feeding billions by mid‑century.
  • The crisis accelerated an ongoing shift toward lower‑sulfur, lower‑carbon products (like TSP) that are better aligned with EU carbon rules and more resilient to Gulf disruptions.

TL;DR: The Hormuz blockade cut off OCP’s lifeblood—Gulf sulfur—forcing a 30% production cut, a rapid pivot to less sulfur‑intensive fertilisers, and intense political and market scrutiny. By mid‑2026, OCP had stabilized operations and returned to full capacity, but the episode underlined both its systemic importance and its exposure to Middle East geopolitics.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.