The Melbourne Cup favourite has won about one in four to five runnings of the race, so favourites lose far more often than they win.

How often the favourite wins

  • Historical stats show that roughly 34 of the first 150 Melbourne Cups were won by the starting favourite, which is about 23%.
  • More recent betting guides still describe the race as notoriously unpredictable , noting that backing the favourite is far from a sure thing despite that roughly one-in-four long‑term strike rate.

Recent decades pattern

  • Modern coverage often highlights that in the 21st century the favourite’s record has been patchy , with several years where the winner started at double‑figure odds instead of on top of the market.
  • This feeds into the race’s reputation: even though the favourite does win sometimes, the Melbourne Cup is seen as a “lottery” handicap where value is often found away from the top pick.

What this means for punters

  • Historically, treating the favourite as a probable winner is a mistake; the long‑term numbers show it loses roughly three times for every one time it wins.
  • Many Cup betting previews therefore suggest using the favourite in exotics (quinellas, trifectas, first fours) rather than relying solely on a win bet, or looking for well‑weighted runners slightly further down the market.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.