Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog of Groundhog Day fame, has a notably poor track record for accurate weather predictions. Various analyses peg his success rate well below random chance, hovering around 39% historically since 1887.

Historical Accuracy

Phil's predictions—seeing his shadow for six more weeks of winter or not for an early spring—have been scrutinized extensively. Stormfax Almanac estimates 39% accuracy overall, while Weather Underground's review from 1969-2016 found 36% for shadow sightings but 47% for no-shadow early spring calls. The Farmer's Almanac claims exactly 50%, but outlets like National Geographic report as low as 28%.

Source| Accuracy Rate| Time Period| Notes
---|---|---|---
Stormfax Almanac| 39%| Since 1887| Overall predictions 1
Weather Underground| 36-47%| 1969-2016| Higher for early spring 15
Farmer's Almanac| 50%| Long-term| Self-assessed 1
National Geographic| 28%| Unspecified| Broad failure rate 1
FiveThirtyEight| 36%| National temps| Regional variance 36-50% 7

Fun fact: Reddit users joke that betting against Phil yields better odds, with one calculating a p-value near 0.004 for his underperformance.

Other Groundhogs

Not just Phil—fellow prognosticators fare similarly. Canada's Shubenacadie Sam hits 45-65%, Wiarton Willy around 25-54%, but most score under 75% reliability. Stars like Oil Springs Ollie bucked the trend with higher rates, while flops like Buckeye Chuck exceeded 70% wrong.

Cultural Take

Despite the stats, Groundhog Day endures as charming folklore, not science. As forums note, it's pure entertainment—Phil's 100% on cuteness! This February 2026, expect the ritual to roll on, accuracy be damned.

TL;DR: Groundhogs like Phil are right ~39% of the time—worse than a coin flip. Tradition > meteorology.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.