The famous Groundhog Day forecast is not very accurate as a predictor of how long winter will last. Overall, Punxsutawney Phil has been right only about 30–40% of the time, which is worse than flipping a coin.

How often is the groundhog right?

  • Long-term analyses comparing Phil’s predictions to actual late‑winter weather put his accuracy around 39%.
  • Over the last decade or so, NOAA estimates he’s been correct only about 30% of the time.
  • Studies that focus on the modern weather-record era (since about 1969) also find accuracy in the mid‑30% range.

In other words, if you flipped a coin each year to guess “early spring” vs “more winter,” you’d statistically do better than relying on the groundhog.

When is Phil least and most accurate?

  • Phil predicts “six more weeks of winter” much more often than “early spring.” Historical records show well over 100 “more winter” calls versus just a couple dozen “early spring” ones.
  • When researchers isolate the years he forecasts an early spring , he does slightly better: one study found about 47% accuracy on those “early spring” calls (still not great, but closer to chance).
  • Recent checks (2013–2023) show that when he sees his shadow , he’s been right only once in seven tries.

So even in his “best” scenarios, Phil is still roughly a coin‑flip at best and substantially worse in many periods.

Why do people still care?

Despite the shaky track record, Groundhog Day remains a beloved mid‑winter ritual rather than a serious forecast.

  • It started in the 1880s as an American spin on older European weather folklore, tying the animal’s emergence to the turning of the seasons.
  • Phil’s handlers humorously claim he’s 100% accurate, but independent records and climate data firmly contradict that.
  • Communities still treat it as a fun cultural event and a way to break up the winter gloom, not as a replacement for meteorologists and modern climate outlooks.

If you’re asking “how often is the groundhog right about winter ~~”, the evidence‑based answer is: only about one‑third of the time, give or take.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.