Mexico are the underdog, but the gap is not huge: England are priced around -160 and Mexico around +125, which puts Mexico’s win chance in the rough 35% to 45% range depending on whether you mean 90 minutes or advancing overall.

What the odds suggest

  • Mexico to win in 90 minutes: about +125 to +245, depending on the book, which implies a decent upset chance but still less likely than an England win.
  • England to win in 90 minutes: about -160 to +130 across the latest listings, showing England as the favorite.
  • Mexico to advance: around +125 to +128 in some markets, so bookmakers give them a live shot if the match goes to extra time or penalties.

Plain-English read

Mexico can absolutely beat England, but they are not the favorite. England are generally given about a 54% chance to advance in prediction-market style pricing, while Mexico’s upset path is still realistic enough that it would not be a shock.

Quick takeaway

If you want a simple estimate, I’d call it Mexico win odds of roughly 1 in 3 to 2 in 5.