Most reports indicate that layoffs and staffing cuts are spread across many civilian agencies, with probationary employees and policy‑related roles often the most vulnerable, rather than a simple list of “all workers in X agency.” The situation is still evolving going into 2026, and many planned reductions are paused, narrowed, or tied up in court challenges.

Big picture: who is at risk?

Recent reporting shows several patterns in who is most likely to be laid off or pushed out:

  • Probationary employees (typically with less than 1–2 years of service) are repeatedly singled out because they have fewer legal protections and bump/retreat rights in a Reduction in Force (RIF).
  • Employees in policy‑influencing roles are at risk of reclassification under “Schedule Policy/Career” (a successor to Schedule F), which can strip traditional civil service protections and make termination easier.
  • Many agencies have used buyouts and early retirement to encourage voluntary departures; more than 150,000–300,000 workers left through such incentives and related pressure campaigns, so layoffs hit those who stayed behind.
  • During the 2025 shutdown, several thousand federal workers across multiple agencies received layoff notices, especially in functions seen as less aligned with the administration’s priorities (for example, some health, climate, and regulatory staff).

Agencies most affected so far

Different sources give slightly different breakdowns, but there is broad agreement that cuts have been widespread across civilian agencies, with a few seeing especially steep losses.

Some key trends:

  • Education, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development have each seen workforce reductions of more than 25% since the current downsizing drive began, largely through buyouts and departures under pressure.
  • Interior, EPA, and other regulatory/environmental agencies have had detailed RIF plans prepared, with confirmed or planned layoffs in the hundreds to thousands, though some are temporarily paused by court orders or legislative deals.
  • Public health and science roles (disease researchers, some health and safety staff, climate and environmental scientists) have been targeted in several rounds of cuts or shutdown‑related layoffs.
  • The Department of Veterans Affairs is planning to eliminate up to 35,000 health‑care jobs (many of them currently unfilled) after losing nearly 30,000 employees in 2025.
  • The Department of Homeland Security has seen relatively modest staffing changes compared with other agencies, reflecting higher priority status.

Snapshot: where cuts are concentrated

[1] [2][5][8] [4][8][3][1] [3] [1] [9][3]
Area / agency What’s happening
Education, Agriculture, HUD Workforces down by 25%+ through buyouts, departures, and targeted cuts.
Interior, EPA, other regulators RIF plans prepared; confirmed or planned layoffs, partly paused by courts and legislation.
Health, climate, science roles Layoffs and non‑renewals for disease researchers, climate staff, and some safety regulators.
Veterans Affairs Up to 35,000 additional positions slated for elimination after large 2025 losses.
Homeland Security Minimal net reductions compared with other agencies.
Probationary & policy staff (various agencies) Especially vulnerable due to reduced protections and Schedule Policy/Career reclassification.

What’s happening right now (early 2026)

Heading into early 2026, several moving pieces shape who may be laid off next:

  • A shutdown‑ending deal paused many RIFs through January 30, and a federal court has enforced that pause, leading some agencies to rescind or suspend layoff notices “for now.”
  • Agencies are reassessing staffing after the pause , and some are expected to resume RIF actions or rely more heavily on hiring freezes and pressure‑based departures rather than outright mass firings.
  • Overall, the civilian federal workforce is down roughly 9% (about 212,000 employees) compared with pre‑cut levels, with more than 300,000 total departures over the last year when buyouts and resignations are included.

No single public list cleanly states “exactly which federal workers will be laid off next,” because:

  • RIF plans are often treated as internal and sometimes shielded from disclosure during litigation.
  • Court orders and funding deals can abruptly pause or modify planned layoffs, changing who is affected at the last minute.

If you are a federal worker wondering “will I be laid off?”

While no online source can tell an individual exactly what will happen to their job, existing guidance for employees under RIF or reclassification pressure suggests a few concrete steps:

  1. Check your status and protections
    • Confirm whether you are still in a probationary period and review your service computation date and competitive level, since these factors heavily influence RIF retention standing.
 * Read any RIF or reclassification notices carefully and keep copies; technical details often matter in appeals or grievances.
  1. Monitor agency and union communications
    • Follow official emails, intranet posts, and town‑hall briefings about RIFs, hiring freezes, or restructuring plans.
 * If you have union representation, monitor their updates; unions are directly involved in many of the current legal challenges and can flag realistic risk levels by occupation or series.
  1. Plan for scenarios, but avoid panic
    • Many earlier layoff plans were scaled back, converted to buyouts, or temporarily blocked in court, so not all announced cuts have gone through as initially proposed.
 * Career advisors for federal employees recommend preparing an updated resume and exploring internal transfers, rather than assuming the worst before final decisions are issued.

Forum and trending discussion angle

Online forums and comment threads about “what federal workers will be laid off” mix real reporting with speculation and political anger.

Common themes in those discussions include:

  • Fear among career civil servants that loyalty tests and reclassification will matter more than job performance in determining who stays.
  • Frustration that cuts often target scientists, regulators, and analysts while leaving politically important or security‑focused roles comparatively protected.
  • Warnings from advocates that another shutdown or renewed RIF push later in 2026 could bring a new wave of layoffs if legal and funding protections lapse.

Bottom line: there is no finalized, public master list of exactly which federal workers will be laid off, but current and planned cuts are concentrated in civilian agencies like Education, Agriculture, HUD, Interior, EPA and related regulators, certain health and climate roles, large segments of VA health care, and especially probationary and policy‑focused staff who have weaker protections.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.