The current projected 2027 Social Security COLA is about 3.8% based on recent forecasts, though estimates vary and the official figure will not be finalized until October 2026. One federal-retirement source says CSRS is projected at 3.6% and FERS at 2.6% as of June 2026, while other recent forecasts range from 1.7% to 4.7% depending on the model used.

What’s being projected

  • TSCL forecast: 3.8% for 2027.
  • Another analyst forecast: 4.7% in a more recent estimate.
  • Lower estimates also exist: 1.7% and 2.8% in earlier 2026 projections.

Important context

The official 2027 COLA will be based on third-quarter inflation data and is expected in October 2026. Because these forecasts depend on inflation between now and then, the number can still move up or down.

Bottom line

If you want the most commonly cited current projection, 3.8% is the headline number right now.