Germany were a big favorite before kickoff: one preview listed Germany at -280 to win in regulation, with Paraguay at +740 and a draw at +390. Another market had Germany around an 86% chance to advance, with Paraguay at 15%.

Pre-game market

  • Moneyline: Germany -280, Paraguay +740, Draw +390.
  • To advance: Germany -950, Paraguay +600.
  • Prediction market: Germany 86% vs Paraguay 15%.

What that means

Those numbers show the market expected Germany to control the match and advance comfortably. Paraguay still had upset value, but it was priced as a long shot before the game.

TL;DR: Germany was heavily favored pre-game, with most books and prediction markets giving them a clear edge.