The most likely winner of the Johor state election 2026 is Barisan Nasional (BN) , but it is still a forecast rather than a result. Recent coverage says BN is widely expected to win, while analysts also caution that the race could be tighter than it looks because BN, PH, and PN are all contesting all 56 seats separately.

Why BN looks ahead

BN is entering the election with a strong advantage in Johor’s political machinery and grassroots structure, and one report says the coalition has the “best window” to reassert dominance. Another report says BN will contest all 56 seats on its own, even though it remains a federal partner of Pakatan Harapan, which gives the race an unusual three-way feel.

What could change the result

There are about 28 battleground seats that analysts say may decide the next government, so the outcome may depend on turnout and local swings rather than a clean landslide. PH has finalized its seat negotiations, and BN is reportedly banking on low turnout, which suggests both sides see a competitive contest ahead. PN is also contesting all 56 seats, which could split votes in some areas and make seat-by-seat outcomes less predictable.

Recent context

In the last Johor state election, BN won 40 of 56 seats and secured a two- thirds majority, while PH won 13 and PN won 3. That history is one reason BN is still the favorite, but 2026 is not a replay of 2022 because the alliances and campaign dynamics are different.

Forum-style read

“BN should still be the team to beat, but turnout and three-corner fights could make this messy.”

Bottom line

If you want the shortest answer: BN is the favorite to win Johor in 2026, but the race is not guaranteed and battleground seats could still produce an upset or a weaker-than-expected BN showing.

TL;DR: BN is the frontrunner, PH and PN are trying to capitalize on split contests, and turnout will likely matter a lot.