Groundhog‑day forecasts are not much better than a coin toss , and Punxsutawney Phil’s long‑term accuracy is only around 35–39% , depending on which dataset you use.

How often has the groundhog been right?

Analyses of Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions since the early 20th century find:

  • NOAA and several news outlets put his overall accuracy at about 35% , meaning he’s wrong roughly two‑thirds of the time.
  • Independent weather‑almanac and meteorology checks (such as Stormfax and Weather Underground) give him closer to 36–39% accuracy , still well below what would count as a reliable forecast.
  • Some broader studies that pool many different groundhogs across the U.S. and Canada find their combined accuracy hovers near 50% , which is essentially no better than random chance.

Quick accuracy snapshot (Punxsutawney Phil)

Metric| Approximate figure
---|---
Overall accuracy (NOAA‑style)| ~35% 39
Almanac / meteorologist estimates| ~36–39% 157
“Early spring” (no shadow) accuracy| ~47% in one major analysis 17
Long‑term combined groundhog accuracy| ~50% , roughly a coin flip 15

Why people still talk about it

Even though the groundhog is rarely “right” by scientific standards , the ritual persists because it’s a cultural tradition more than a forecasting tool. Many fans treat it as a fun, shared moment in early‑February rather than a serious weather source, which helps keep the “how often has the groundhog been right?” question trending every year.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.