You’re probably asking about Punxsutawney Phil, the Groundhog Day weather “forecaster,” and how often he’s actually right.

How often is Phil right?

Looking at long‑term checks against real weather data, Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions come out to roughly 30–40% accuracy , depending on the dataset and time window used.

That means he’s wrong more often than a simple coin flip , which would average about 50%.

What recent analyses say

  • A review using Stormfax Almanac data found Phil is right about 30% of the time overall.
  • A 10‑year analysis by NOAA meteorologists put him closer to 40% accuracy , still clearly below chance.
  • Media roundups for Groundhog Day 2026 describe Phil’s accuracy in the mid‑30% range , ranking him behind several other groundhogs like Staten Island Chuck, who’s often cited near 85% accuracy in recent decades.

So, if the question is “how often is Phil right?” the honest answer is: only about one‑third of the time, maybe creeping toward two‑fifths in the best framing —fun tradition, but not a reliable forecasting tool.

Bottom note: Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.