Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog from Pennsylvania, has a notably low accuracy rate for his Groundhog Day weather predictions, hovering around 39% overall since records began in 1887.

Historical Accuracy

Phil's forecasts—seeing his shadow for six more weeks of winter or not for an early spring—have been tracked meticulously. Data from the Stormfax Almanac and analyses like those from Weather Underground show he's correct only about 39% of the time across 130+ years, worse than a coin flip at 50%. Since 1969, with more reliable weather data, it drops to roughly 36%. Over the past decade (up to 2025), NOAA reports an even poorer 30% success rate.

Prediction Type| Times Made (as of 2024)| Accuracy Rate| Source [cite]
---|---|---|---
Saw Shadow (Long Winter)| 108| ~39% overall| 3
No Shadow (Early Spring)| 21| 47% (better but still low)| 59
Post-1969 Overall| N/A| 36%| 5
Last 10 Years| N/A| 30%| 7

Why So Inaccurate?

Statistically, Phil performs no better than random chance—and sometimes worse. A Reddit analysis even calculated a z-score of -2.65 (p-value 0.004), suggesting an "anti-Phil" (opposite prediction) would beat him handily at over 60% accuracy. Experts like meteorologist Tim Roche note climatological baselines outperform him easily. Fun fact: The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club cheekily claims 100% accuracy via an "elixir of life" myth, but that's pure lore without evidence.

Forum & Trending Buzz

Online chatter, especially on Reddit, loves roasting Phil's track record. Threads from 2021–2025 highlight the 39% stat as TIL trivia, with users joking he'd fare better as a reverse oracle. As of early 2026 (post-2025 prediction), no major shifts in his legacy—still a beloved tradition despite the flops. Lighthearted speculation: With climate weirding, will Phil adapt? Forums say bet on NOAA instead.

TL;DR: Phil's right ~39% lifetime, 30–36% recently—flip a coin or check modern forecasts for better odds.

Information gathered from public forums or data available on the internet and portrayed here.